Nationally, purpose-driven organizations are being charged with rapidly making strategic decisions about their programs, operations, and finances, as changes to federal funding and executive orders drive existential shifts in the social and economic landscape.
One tool that organizations can utilize when approaching this kind of urgent decision-making is a Theory of Change. Rather than relegating it to the once-every-five-years strategic planning process, returning to the Theory of Change in times of uncertainty can effectively anchor organizations to their mission, providing focus and clarity for decision-making.
A Theory of Change is, at its core, a comprehensive illustration of the “how and why” behind an organization’s program model. It maps the process of social change that the organization seeks to bring about, from the assumptions that inform the program’s design to the long-term goals the program will achieve. A Theory of Change helps organizations understand the relationship between their desired outcomes and the strategies or interventions they use to produce those outcomes.
This structured approach becomes invaluable when navigating the unpredictable. It becomes an anchor for the organization to continually refer back to, a tool for risk management and scenario planning when faced with outside obstacles, and a shared language that stakeholders can understand and use to communicate about change with clarity and consistency. Let’s explore that in action:
Theory of Change as a Strategic Anchor
A Theory of Change provides a strategic anchor, ensuring the organization remains steadfast in its mission despite external changes. Consider a community health organization aiming to reduce the prevalence of heart disease. Their Theory of Change might outline how providing accessible heart health education workshops (activities) leads to increased community awareness (outputs), which in turn results in improved health behaviors (outcomes) and ultimately, a reduction in heart disease prevalence (impact).
When faced with environmental instability that threatens the work, such as an economic downturn resulting in funding cuts from a sponsor, it may be tempting to shift in the moment to reactive, short-term solutions (“Maybe we should start selling t-shirts to bring in earned revenue?”). Revisiting the Theory of Change together can help the organization recall its ultimate goal and instead make decisions in line with achieving that goal, such as prioritizing essential educational programs over less mission-critical activities. In this case, the community health organization can refer back to its Theory of Change as a decision making tool, and meet each new reactive idea with a series of questions:
- Does this idea support the outcomes and impact we’re working toward?
- Where does it fit within our Theory of Change — is it advancing our core activities or creating distraction?
- Will this help us improve community health behaviors, or is it just a short-term fix?
- Can we communicate this decision clearly to stakeholders using the language of our Theory of Change?
Tool for Risk Management & Scenario Planning
A Theory of Change facilitates risk management and scenario planning by highlighting the assumptions and potential vulnerabilities in a program’s model. In the community health organization example, one of their assumptions may be that if people have the right information about heart health, they will be able to act to improve their health behaviors, such as by visiting their doctor for blood pressure and cholesterol screenings. By explicitly mapping this assumption, the organization can anticipate potential risks: what happens if doctors are no longer as accessible? A sudden surge in demand due to a pandemic, for example, could overwhelm healthcare facilities and disrupt service delivery. After identifying this risk, the organization can then develop contingency plans for how it would alter its activities, perhaps by establishing mobile clinics to offer screenings.
| Assumption | Risk | Contingency Plan |
| People have adequate access to doctors/healthcare facilities | Access to healthcare facilities is cut off (e.g., by a pandemic) | Launch mobile clinics to offer alternative access to screenings |
Aligning Stakeholders with Clear Communication
Finally, a Theory of Change strengthens communication and alignment among stakeholders. When staff, partners, and community members understand and can clearly articulate the “how and why” of an organization’s work, they can more clearly advocate for the cause to others. Furthermore, a clear and detailed Theory of Change better equips an organization to adjust their communications for external audiences without losing central messaging. For example, the community health organization may historically have described their mission in terms of “combatting health inequity.” While political winds may cause the organization to move away from terms like “inequity” in external-facing messaging, grounding in the Theory of Change can allow them to identify new language that captures what they do but is perceived more neutrally, such as “promoting community health.”
Ultimately, for purpose-driven organizations, a Theory of Change is more than just a strategic document: it’s a vital tool for navigating the complexities of uncertainty. It acts as an organizational compass, providing direction, promoting adaptability, and ensuring that the organization can continue to advance its mission regardless of how the surrounding environment changes.
Does your organization need support drafting, updating, or implementing its Theory of Change? We want to partner with you! Get in touch with us here.
